Friday, September 14, 2012

Our DS CFB Plays and Winners in Those Games

With our NCAA lineup locked in for the weekend, here is who we are rolling with on DraftStreet (I know they don’t sponsor you, but they are the best in NCAA FB, so it’s what we play). Hopefully this can give you guys an idea of what teams we like and big time players on each team.

QB1: Brett Hundley: Hundley is facing off against Houston this weekend which is every fantasy player’s dream. Houston has zero defense as seen by giving up 86 total points to the likes of Texas State and Louisiana Tech this season. Hundley has over 500 yards through the air and over 100 yards on the ground in two games and he shouldn’t let up against this terrible Cougars defense. We like UCLA to win big.

QB2: Johnny Manziel: If anyone watched the Texas A&M game last weekend you saw an impressive young QB in Manziel. His numbers weren’t insane, but they were very solid in the loss to Florida. He had 173 yards passing while rushing 17 times for 60 yards and one TD. This weekend against SMU we expect the offense to put up bigger numbers and we think it starts with Manziel. SMU gave up 52 points to Baylor in week 1 and we see that as a pretty comparable matchup. TAMU should win easily

RB1: Fitzgerald Toussaint: This Michigan running back has done nothing impressive this season as he was suspended for week 1 and just didn’t put up anything special last week against Air Force. We really like him to breakout again this weekend against UMass for a few reasons. For one, does anyone really expect Denard Robinson to carry a heavy load against a team Michigan should handle easily? This seems like one of those games were Coach Hoke will try to establish his running game through Fitz and not Denard. We also like Fitz this weekend because of his super cheap price on DraftStreet. Another easy win for the Wolverines.

RB2: Le”veon Bell: Bell IS the Michigan State offense and in a game of this caliber you expect the big name players to step up. We like MSU to win and we like them not because of their passing game. Maxwell has struggled mightily this season and anytime they are in the red zone we expect a heavy dose of Bell. MSU should win this one, although we wouldn’t give Notre Dame points as we see it to be a close victory.

RB3: Silas Redd: Redd hasn’t played like many expected him to, but it’s tough to expect big numbers early from a guy who is new to the team. He was a cheap play and will be in a big time game against Syracuse. We took the chance. We really think Stanford could pull off the upset because they are at home, but we just think the offensive talent of USC is too much.

RB4: John White: White is the guy to have on Utah this week as they face off against BYU in a big time rivalry. We looked and saw White had impressive numbers (174 yards 3 TDs) and those are the kinds of things we like to see when we pick our lineup. Also, he is pretty cheap with a price of under 9K. White should lead Utah to a victory after a tough loss to Utah State.

WR1: Allen Robinson: Robinson will be the #1 guy with the other starting WR for the Nittany Lions leaving the team this week. Robinson has 19 catches on the year and against a team like Navy, we like Penn State to actually put up some offensive numbers. Penn State wins by 7-10 points as Navy is just not good right now.

WR2: Michael Campanaro: Campanaro is one of Wake’s best WRs and honestly looking back at this pick I’m pretty sure it was our last addition to the lineup. We really liked the lineup before hand and didn’t want to change it so we went with him. He does have good numbers on the year (22 catches for 260 yards) and we think the FSU defense is a little overrated especially now with Jenkins, FSU’s best pass rusher, out for the season. Wake gets 28 points or so depending on when you bet, and we think they lose by 20-24.

WR3: Marquise Lee: Lee is a top WR talent in this year’s draft and he should play like it in the game against Stanford. The combination of Lee and Woods is easily the best combo of WRs in college right now, and it’ll be impossible to double both. Barkley will get the ball to Lee or Woods in the red zone, and worst-case scenario we are looking at an 8 catch 120 yards game out of Lee. Those are solid floor numbers for a WR.

TE: Jordan Reed: Reed has good numbers and we wanted a cheap TE that would get solid playing time. Reed should be good for 3-4 catches and 35 yards. Factor in the possibility of a TD and those are great numbers for a guy at 4.6K. Florida wins this one and extends their win streak over UT to 8 games.

Our Look at Primtime Action

We took a deep look into last night’s NFL action and came up with some thoughts and feeling on the notable players. 

-Jay Cutler will only go as far as his offensive line goes. Cutler obviously has the talent around him in Marshall and Forte (before the injury), but until he consistently gets time in the pocket, he can’t be the fantasy player we want him to be. We would not want him on our season long league, and we definitely wouldn’t play him in daily fantasy leagues until we see a consistently strong offensive line.

-Matt Forte had a high ankle sprain in the third quarter of last night, and for now looks to be out for at least two weeks. There are reports that he might even need 4-6 weeks. Be aware that Chicago’s bye week is in week 6, so they play it safe and wait till week 7.

-In his place, Michael Bush will be getting even more of Forte’s carries. This could be a great play for many reasons. Last season he showed his ability to step in for an injured stud running back (McFadden). It took weeks for some fantasy sites to raise his price and for those that did their research, they profited heavily because of it. The last reason why we like Bush is he is a big running back who loves his goal line carries. The next 3 games for the Bears: Rams, at Cowboys, and at Jags.

-Aaron Rodgers owners should not expect ridiculous point totals from week to week like last season and daily fantasy players should NEVER pay for him because of the high risk it is to spend that much money on one guy. Rodgers ‘ numbers look as follows: 52 for 76 for 522 yards with 3 TDs and 2 INTs. His completion percentage is right on par for last season, so there is no need to freak out, but with the addition of Benson (who we now love) there seems to be less opportunities for Rodgers to go crazy.

-Now, let’s get to Cedric Benson. Benson followed an 18-yard game with an 81-yard game including 4 catches for 35 yards. The Packers from the very start looked to get him involved and that’s something we like to see. We don’t expect Benson to become a #1 RB by any means, and honestly we see him more as middle to late range #2 RB. It’s tough to grade a running back against a team like San Francisco,  and because of that we don’t even look to that game in our evaluation of his talents.

-Randall Cobb might not be the guy we thought he’d be. Before last night’s game, we loved Cobb on sites like Draftkings because of his super low price ($2500). It ended up being a good move because he scored 5.8 fantasy points, but from now on we will stay away from him in most situations. If you watched the game closely you saw that there were a ton of snaps where Cobb wasn’t even on the field and this was with Jennings not playing due to an injury. You also saw Benson as the main running back with Cobb lining up in the backfield maybe 2-3 times. Cobb just doesn’t look like a guy that can consistently put up solid points for those looking at him in season long leagues.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Do's and Don'ts of Week 2 in the NFL

The Do’s and Don’ts of Week 2.  Instead of giving you rankings of guys at each position, we are giving you a guy or two at each position that we don’t like that most everyone does, or really like that we think should be getting more attention. Enjoy.


-Don’t spend the money on Matt Ryan this week against the Broncos. Last week Big Ben threw for 245 on 40 attempts and only completed 22 of them. He also added 2 TDs and an INT. We realize that Ryan is the better QB AND has better weapons around him, but we don’t think it was because of a lack of talent on the offensive side for the Steelers. The Broncos defense has a great pass rush as seen by the 5 sacks on Big Ben. They also hit the him 9 times in that game… Last week the Chiefs were blown out because they didn’t have their best pass rusher (Tamba Hali) and cover corner (Brandon Flowers) on the field. That’s a recipe for disaster.

-Do take the chance on Ryan Fitzpatrick this week against the Chiefs. This shouldn’t come as THAT much of a surprise considering the way the Falcons tore them apart. The Chiefs will have Tamba Hali back for the game, but as of right now Brandon Flowers is questionable. Considering Flowers has been limited at practice at best since the end of July makes us not worry so much if he does play. Fitzpatrick has weapons around him to throw to in guys like Spiller and Stevie Johnson (Donald Jones also looked good last weekend), and is coming off a 3 TD performance against the Jets. Yes, he threw for less than 200 yards and threw 3 INTs, but there will be no Revis or Cromartie on the field covering his guys. The loss of Fred Jackson doesn’t worry us that much because it’ll put more of an emphasis on throwing the ball.


-Don’t expect repeat performances this weekend from Kevin Smith or Darren Sproles. They both put up great numbers last week, but look closer and you’ll see they will be two guys you will want to stay away from Sunday. Smith put up 2 TDs against the Rams, but this week he faces a much tougher D in San Francisco. Last week Cedric Benson was held to less than 20 yards rushing against them. You might be hoping for a goal line touchdown out of Smith, but we don’t see them gaining much yardage on the ground close to the end zone. Expect Stafford to try and throw it in from there… Darren Sproles had 5 catches for 35 yards, a 2-point conversion, and a TD last week against the Redskins. Do you really expect Sproles to be the benefactor of a 2-point conversion again this week? And if it wasn’t for a 2 yard TD reception he would have been held to just 4 catches on 33 yards. There are so many targets for Brees to throw to that we would stay away from Sproles this weekend.

- Do expect another nice game out of BenJarvus Green-Ellis this Sunday against the Browns. BJGE put up a 5.1 YPC average against the Ravens on 18 carries. He also added a rushing TD and one reception. BJGE should remain at around 20 touches a game especially considering how Andy Dalton looked. Pair that up with the Browns intercepting 4 of Vick’s passes and we think the ground will be where the Bengals do most of their damage. Also, the Browns gave up 110 yards on 20 carries to LeSean McCoy, and although they are two different kind of running backs we still expect the Law Firm to be successful. 


-Don’t expect 12 catches for 195 yards and 2 TDs for the combination of Julio Jones and Roddy White when they face off against the Broncos on Monday Night Football. For one, someone will have to be covered by Champ Bailey and you can bet it will be one of those two (we think Roddy White). Last week for the Steelers their top 2 WR combined for 111 yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. These are the kind of numbers we will be expecting out of the White/Jones combo. The pass rush for the Broncos will be all over Matt Ryan and we think they will try to run the ball more with either Turner or Rodgers.

-Do spend the chump change on Aldrick Robinson Sunday against the Rams. Robinson led the team in targets with 6 against the Saints, and if Pierre Garcon isn’t full strength or doesn’t play this weekend then he is worth the low risk it’ll take to put him on your team. Robinson ended the day with 4 catches for 52 yards and 1 TD to go along with drawing a pass interference call in the end zone. RG3 clearly has the ability to throw the ball around and the Rams have shown that they can give up big yardage through the air (355 yards to Stafford).


-Don’t even think about putting Marcedes Lewis on your fantasy roster this weekend if you’re playing DFS. His QB is Blaine Gabbert and they are facing the Houston Texans. I should stop there, but I won’t because it’s before noon on a Thursday and I have nothing better to do. Lewis was tied for 5th in targets when they faced the Vikings and his touchdown was a 1 yard reception. In the long run, Lewis could be a solid season long TE, but in daily fantasy play and with his matchup this weekend we would stay away.

-Do stick with Greg Olsen as a cheaper TE option in DFS play. Olsen had a solid 6 catches for 56 yards last Sunday against the Bucs. This doesn’t seem like much, but considering how Cam Newton played, we expect this kind of performance to be his floor especially with Olsen being a red zone target. Even on a bad offensive day, Newton targeted Olsen 7 times and with the run game becoming better with Stewart being back we expect more open targets for Olsen. Running the ball should open up the middle of the field for play action and more space for Olsen to work with.

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Tuesday's Pick 5 for Starstreet

Ian Kennedy over Ryan Vogelsong.. Vogelsong has given up 4, 3, 3, and 8 in his last 4 starts. And in two of those starts he didn't make it through the fourth. Need to have some innings pitched if you're going to give up 3. Kennedy is coming back from a 2 hitter in 6.1 innings against the Dodgers in his last start. Before that his previous starts were 6, 1, and 3 runs, but threw at least 5.1 innings in each of those starts. Both offenses are feeling good right now, so this really is a tough pick. The pick for me is made when looking at Kennedy's split stats. His road ERA is a 3.62 while his home ERA is into the 5s. He also has a 2.51 ERA in 2 starts against the Giants this season.

Rick Porcello over Jon Lester... Porcello has been pretty consistent in his last 3 starts. He has given up 2, 3, and 3 runs and 22 hits in 17 innings. He will give up his hits and only strikeout 4-6 per game, but his ERA has been better than Lester's as of late. Lester have given up 5, 3, and 1 in his last 3 starts and amazingly has struck out less in those games than Porcello. Porcello will be facing the out of it Indians while Lester faces the Angels who just scored 5 against him in 8 innings on the 30th.

Prince Fielder over Edwin Encarnacion... Prince and Edwin both have favorable matchups with Prince facing Masterson the sinkerballer who hasn't seen much sink this year (4.91 ERA this season) while Edwin is facing Zach Britton the lefty who has given up only 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts, but on the season has a 4.80 ERA. Prince has only 3 strikeouts in his last 10 games, while Edwin has 8 strikeouts. Both have been hitting at about the same level in the last week except Edwin has 3 home runs in his last four games. Looking at the matchup I'd rather go with Prince because Masterson has given up 16 earned runs in his last 3 starts.

Yoenis Cespedes over Michael Bourn... This was also a tough pick for me as Cespedes is facing Greinke the dominant righty and Bourn is facing Pomeranz the lefty. I'm not worried about strikeouts being a factor here as both have had their fair share of strikeouts in the last ten games. Bourn only has 7 hits in his last 10 games while Cespedes has 11 hits in those 10 games. I'm going to go with the hot hand and take Cespedes based on that alone.

Desmond Jennings over Jason Kubel... I know I picked against Vogelsong earlier in the post, but I can't pick Kubel tonight as he only 4 hits in his last 10 games with 2 runs and 2 RBI. Jennings has been hot (13 hits in last 10 games) and is facing the righty Freddy Garcia tonight. Garcia isn't overpowering and the way Jennings is hitting he should be good for at least one hit and an RBI/run. IMO the easiest pick on today's pick 5.

Sunday, September 2, 2012

OSF's Pick 5 on StarStreet

Matt Cain over Yovani Gallardo... He has had at least 5 K's in all of his last 6 starts. In his last 29.2 innings (Last 4 starts) he has allowed 6 earned runs and 24 hits. Today he faces the Cubs and he had a pretty great start the last time he faced them (June 2nd). In that game, he gave up 5 hits in 8 innings with only one earned run. He also tallied 7 strikeouts....... Yovani has some pretty great starts in last 2 months, but his competition hasn't been the greatest. He is coming off 3 of his last 4 starts being the Astros or Cubs. And honestly, his strikeout numbers are tempting to pick here, but against the Pirates I don't think I want to go with Yovani. In the last 4 games, the Pirates have scored 2, 3, 5, and 9 runs. I'm hoping they get their offense going like the 5 and 9 run games from 4 days ago rather than the 2 run game last night.

David Price over Cole Hamels... I know Price is coming off a bad start on the 27th, but come on, it was against the Rangers. Before that he had gone 15 innings scoreless with 16 Ks during those innings. He has a better chance of a win today IMO than Cole Hamels. Price also has the potential to get 10 Ks on any given night..... Hamels is coming off two straight starts of giving up 3 runs and then 2 complete game shutouts. He hasn't started a game since August 23rd because of the stomach bug, so he'll be fresh against the Braves today. Both starters have had average to bad games, but I like Price against the Jays today.

Aramis Ramirez over Giancarlo Stanton... Stanton has 3 home runs in his last 7 games, and has a 7 game hit streak. Stanton is also hitting at home today, but he will be facing Chris Young from the Mets who has a mid 4 era. Ramirez on the other hand is facing James McDonald with a mid 3 era. The strikeout numbers for Stanton are alarming as he had struck out 10 times in his last 7 games. Those will be some big negative points in today's Pick 5. Ramirez on the other hand has 3 Ks in his last 9 games. I like Ramirez today even though he has been hit or miss lately. The strikeout numbers are just too scary for us in this format.

Andrew McCutchen over Evan Longoria... Cutch has 7 hits in his last 4 games compared to Longoria's 3 hits in the same time frame. Both of them haven't struck out or walked a lot lately, so we don't seeing that being a factor today. Cutch is facing a pretty hot Gallardo today while Longoria faces the struggling Ricky Romero. Romero only gave up 2 against the Yankees in his last start and we are hoping he duplicates that stat line today as we pick Cutch.

Brandon Phillips over Ian Kinsler... Phillips has 8 hits in his last 5 games while Kinsler has 3 hits in those 5 games. Phillips faces Bud Norris who has a 5 era while Kinsler is facing McAllister with a high 3 era. Phillips is hitting in the hitter friendly confines of Houston while Kinsler won't be hitting in his home ball park. Phillips has 4 Ks in his last 5 games while Kinsler has 6 hits in those 5 games (hat trick in one of those games).. Getting the point here?

Sunday, August 26, 2012