Thursday, September 13, 2012

Do's and Don'ts of Week 2 in the NFL


The Do’s and Don’ts of Week 2.  Instead of giving you rankings of guys at each position, we are giving you a guy or two at each position that we don’t like that most everyone does, or really like that we think should be getting more attention. Enjoy.

QB:

-Don’t spend the money on Matt Ryan this week against the Broncos. Last week Big Ben threw for 245 on 40 attempts and only completed 22 of them. He also added 2 TDs and an INT. We realize that Ryan is the better QB AND has better weapons around him, but we don’t think it was because of a lack of talent on the offensive side for the Steelers. The Broncos defense has a great pass rush as seen by the 5 sacks on Big Ben. They also hit the him 9 times in that game… Last week the Chiefs were blown out because they didn’t have their best pass rusher (Tamba Hali) and cover corner (Brandon Flowers) on the field. That’s a recipe for disaster.

-Do take the chance on Ryan Fitzpatrick this week against the Chiefs. This shouldn’t come as THAT much of a surprise considering the way the Falcons tore them apart. The Chiefs will have Tamba Hali back for the game, but as of right now Brandon Flowers is questionable. Considering Flowers has been limited at practice at best since the end of July makes us not worry so much if he does play. Fitzpatrick has weapons around him to throw to in guys like Spiller and Stevie Johnson (Donald Jones also looked good last weekend), and is coming off a 3 TD performance against the Jets. Yes, he threw for less than 200 yards and threw 3 INTs, but there will be no Revis or Cromartie on the field covering his guys. The loss of Fred Jackson doesn’t worry us that much because it’ll put more of an emphasis on throwing the ball.

RB:

-Don’t expect repeat performances this weekend from Kevin Smith or Darren Sproles. They both put up great numbers last week, but look closer and you’ll see they will be two guys you will want to stay away from Sunday. Smith put up 2 TDs against the Rams, but this week he faces a much tougher D in San Francisco. Last week Cedric Benson was held to less than 20 yards rushing against them. You might be hoping for a goal line touchdown out of Smith, but we don’t see them gaining much yardage on the ground close to the end zone. Expect Stafford to try and throw it in from there… Darren Sproles had 5 catches for 35 yards, a 2-point conversion, and a TD last week against the Redskins. Do you really expect Sproles to be the benefactor of a 2-point conversion again this week? And if it wasn’t for a 2 yard TD reception he would have been held to just 4 catches on 33 yards. There are so many targets for Brees to throw to that we would stay away from Sproles this weekend.

- Do expect another nice game out of BenJarvus Green-Ellis this Sunday against the Browns. BJGE put up a 5.1 YPC average against the Ravens on 18 carries. He also added a rushing TD and one reception. BJGE should remain at around 20 touches a game especially considering how Andy Dalton looked. Pair that up with the Browns intercepting 4 of Vick’s passes and we think the ground will be where the Bengals do most of their damage. Also, the Browns gave up 110 yards on 20 carries to LeSean McCoy, and although they are two different kind of running backs we still expect the Law Firm to be successful. 

WR:

-Don’t expect 12 catches for 195 yards and 2 TDs for the combination of Julio Jones and Roddy White when they face off against the Broncos on Monday Night Football. For one, someone will have to be covered by Champ Bailey and you can bet it will be one of those two (we think Roddy White). Last week for the Steelers their top 2 WR combined for 111 yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. These are the kind of numbers we will be expecting out of the White/Jones combo. The pass rush for the Broncos will be all over Matt Ryan and we think they will try to run the ball more with either Turner or Rodgers.

-Do spend the chump change on Aldrick Robinson Sunday against the Rams. Robinson led the team in targets with 6 against the Saints, and if Pierre Garcon isn’t full strength or doesn’t play this weekend then he is worth the low risk it’ll take to put him on your team. Robinson ended the day with 4 catches for 52 yards and 1 TD to go along with drawing a pass interference call in the end zone. RG3 clearly has the ability to throw the ball around and the Rams have shown that they can give up big yardage through the air (355 yards to Stafford).

TE:

-Don’t even think about putting Marcedes Lewis on your fantasy roster this weekend if you’re playing DFS. His QB is Blaine Gabbert and they are facing the Houston Texans. I should stop there, but I won’t because it’s before noon on a Thursday and I have nothing better to do. Lewis was tied for 5th in targets when they faced the Vikings and his touchdown was a 1 yard reception. In the long run, Lewis could be a solid season long TE, but in daily fantasy play and with his matchup this weekend we would stay away.

-Do stick with Greg Olsen as a cheaper TE option in DFS play. Olsen had a solid 6 catches for 56 yards last Sunday against the Bucs. This doesn’t seem like much, but considering how Cam Newton played, we expect this kind of performance to be his floor especially with Olsen being a red zone target. Even on a bad offensive day, Newton targeted Olsen 7 times and with the run game becoming better with Stewart being back we expect more open targets for Olsen. Running the ball should open up the middle of the field for play action and more space for Olsen to work with.

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